Friday, May 15, 2020

Corona Tales

The misery of fellow Indians walking, cycling, limping, dragging themselves thousands of kilometres across the country just to reach home splashed in gory vivid detail across the News channels does not make for comfort viewing.

Nor the so called 'magic walls' on TV channels that are updating deaths by the minute. Add to that a ponderous government bent on creating a circus in declaring assistance - the mantra seems to be to offer a loan to all and sundry.

Economics was my subject once and I shudder to even put a cost or the domino affect it will have in the coming months of Circa 2020.It seems to be a problem of demand sinkage. The RBI and Government are treating it as a supply side issue? The trust factor to lend to a business has been missing since early 2019 when the IL&FS crisis happened but the powers that be are yet to wake up.

Where is the focus to create jobs?Reach the bottom of the pyramid?Yes India is a vast complex country but rating agencies(especially our international friends) are not the ones that should dictate policy especially at a time when superpowers like the USA are shuddering and reacting without fear of fiscal stress.
Miserable for the daily wagers, miserable for small businesses and do not even talk of the Middle class which will probably be taxed out of existence.Already transport fares are set to rise by anywhere from 30 - 100%. Income is expected down at 25 - 100%. GDP forecast down. So Costs higher,even though crude prices are at decade lows!This will affect the entire supply chain as goods in India are mostly transported by Road rather than railway.

A lot of businesses will perish. Even those that survive will be scarred. However what will be will be. I have this feeling that if we can look  beyond the short term a whole new world awaits. This long incarceration has taught us the value of social mixing even the soot and dust!

I feel that once the virus comes under control we the huge masses will unleash the pent up demand be it cinema theatres, fine dining or travel.It is about getting through between now and then that is the key.
I am a Contrarian
Automobiles will see buying
Farm Tech will be used more
E Commerce will gain further market share
Local Tourism will buzz

The Corona virus has touched us all to closely to remind us of our mortality and the transcience of Life.But do not underestimate the human race.

Thank God its Friday. Thank God I am alive to see it !!

P.S. that is my sketch of a Barn Owl. A harbinger of good luck here in the East