Thursday, July 25, 2019

Public Relations Trumps Reality in Indian Markets

Is India on the path to a lost decade!Has public relations and perception trumped the reality?Has the Emperor lost his clothes?

Stunned that in a country of a billion people we cannot find 10 who understand the economy or the repercussions of action.Making big proclamations that have no connection to what is going on around you,data fudging and sheer financial muscle to buy the opposition do not augur well for the country.

The markets have fallen,so called long term investors are screaming blue murder on social media,yet the underlying message is grim.

Slowdown in the hitherto safe automobile and FMCG segment are pointers to a drastic fall in the internal consumption pattern,the Monsoon is weak. The Banking system paralysed,the politicians busy with reaping their own gains.Globally the sabre rattling between the US and China and Iran and Russia is a waiting unlit cauldron.

Yet in such situations are bull markets born or reborn. The true long term investors would find many wonderful businesses that have come off high P/E.

But today I think I would like to talk of bad businesses,failed businesses yet those that are in critical sectors like banking or consumption or commodities.

If you have a long term portfolio,my advise is to also have a 'disaster' portfolio,as long as you are disciplined enough to limit it to funds that you can wait to lose or recoup after a lonnnngggggggg lonnnnngggggg timeGMR infra,Yes Bank,Vedanta are a few examples that in the coming few years just might be the multi baggers you wish. The wonderful thing is that all you need is ONE such 100 bagger to ensure your portfolio beats the benchmark alpha.

I hear tales of Mutual Funds being safe(they are just as volatile as direct equity),infrastructure being the next big thing(since 2005) and sundry other myths.

Back your Research because that is the crux.Politics and their cause and affect will come and go.Expect volatility. FDs are not not tax efficient. All Debt Funds are not safe.Do your RESEARCH.

*Stocks mentioned are not recommendations.Check with your Financial Advisor



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