Monday, January 1, 2018

Lessons for 2018

Another year fades into memory.New words that entered our lexicon - 'demonetization' and "GST" seem like known devils that may yet cause strife.

The highlight offcourse has been the cow saving brigade and only years later will be come to know if indelible scars have been left in Indian citizens of different faiths?How can a Government that calls itself progressive and for reforms hark back to a baser and more parochial view is beyond me.

The ordinary citizens are more affected by jobs,food prices,infrastructure as the results in the Gujarat elections points too and going forward that will remain the main issue and not a temple to Ram.

The Indian equity markets have remained robust and a time and price correction is much required as the Nifty PE ratio continues to close in of 25X kind of valuations.

Will corporate earnings catch up in January 2018?Although expectations are positive,I do not see it moving above the 15% range on average.

We need roads,we need ports,most of all we need an organised market mechanism,affordable storage chains to minimise wastage and keep perishable food prices from spiking.60+ years and counting yet that is yet to happen.

Corporate taxes still too high in India.No sign of investments kickstarting new entrepreneurs and lack of imagination in implementing "Make in India" has really not created any buzz even after 3 years of majoritarian government.

The opportunity in the infrastructure,road-ports and cold storage sectors is vast.The turnaround in airlines looks here to stay even with ATF inching up.

The new shift in power in Saudi Arabia will keep the prince interested in having crude prices on the higher side to fund his deficit.

I think value buyers will find plenty to think about as well as fund managers will find that they are having to work harder to eke out benchmark beating returns in 2018.

Just hope that Kim Jr's missiles do not malfunction and land over Japan.
Just hope that The Donald doesn't get bored and looks to start a war in the middle east
Just hope the Inran backed Houthis do not come into possession of ICBM.

Domestically any hike in "Long term Capital gains Tax " or change in tenure from 1 year to 3 years will lead to a short sharp negative reaction......but the kind of returns that the markets have generated will mean that investors will have no other option than to invest.

Happy investing in 2018.