Wednesday, January 25, 2017

USA is now Micky & Donald Co

The new president of the United States of America seems like a child handed a toy that they know not what to do with.Cannot resist asking,”Americans how could you elect a liar like Trump to the highest office in the land?

If you are a stock trader/investor or an analyst,you should be really really afraid.
When market pundits expected markets to fall they rose,when they said they were certain it would fall,the markets rose higher !!

Mr Trump is removing ‘Obamacare’,backing out from Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP),planning a wall with Mexico,trade sanctions or anti dumping tarrifs against those who have trade surplus with the US and many other measures whose repercussions cannot be gauged at this moment.

Is his strategy really deep or is he a simpleton with limited knowledge,an overblown ego and a perennial foot in the mouth ?

As seen from the data,post 1980s US import and export curve almost matches each other signifying goods and services exported to US and revenues used to buy imported products from the US has been about the same.

Trade deficit of the USA in 2015 was approximately $ 500 bn.Higher import tariffs will lead to higher inflation and consequently less dollars in the hands of exporters most of which are being invested in US $ backed securities? So is reducing imports such a good move ?

There are many such issues.Alternative facts and post-truths

The  Economist defines post-truth as "a reliance on assertions that "feel true" but have no basis in fact."

Indian markets on the other hand have continued to climb,the Government figures on GDP seem misconstrued or even a barely camouflaged lie and instead of 30% currency not being demonetized as per Government expectations the fig is only 3%.

After all Trump has made it fashionable to be trashy and rude and sexist.

The isolationist policies in the US and Britain will enrage the rest of the world and it will not be easy to steamroll China into submission.Neither to tame the ISIS.

There is talk of Indian corporate profit growth 10-12% and a GDP of 6.5%.Still talk.Most sectors yet to recover from demonetization,election in the politically vital state of Uttar Pradesh as also Punjab and Goa will be a litmus test of Modi magic.

Look forward to the Budget on 1st February with trepidation as this prime Minister seems to see the stock markets as a place of speculation and not as a bellweather of the economy.Are higher ‘service taxes’ coming and maybe a few goodies for the so called “POOR”.

The middle class that pays the taxes will probably get a few sops as in housing loan limits getting upgraded but higher taxes in other spheres will make a it sum zero game.
Beggar the Middle class then give it a few handouts to show that the government is in support.Really nothing has changed from Indira Gandhi’sgaribi Hatao” to all these “Abhiyans” – swach,swadeshi…

The poor remain poor,the rich get richer,manufacturing dies a slow death,Chinese buy up companies,traditions lost,cultures bereft.

It is indeed a strange India with all the inherent polarities of the past six decades intact.Only the veneer has changed to saffron.

Henry Vivian DeRozio must be turning in his forgotten grave in Park Street as must Washington,Jefferson,Franklin and Lincoln.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2017:Exciting or Weird But Definitely Not Boring !!

Ten days of the new year are over.Donald Trump is still reacting to every poke.He really needs to strengthen his social media team if he is to react to each and every comment that is thrown at him.

Mr Jaitley the 'shadow' finance minister(real one being a ceratin Mr Modi) is pushing some figures to show that the demonetisation unleashed by his captain has not had any effect on the economy where as the on ground situation is quite alarming with wholesale markets yet to recover from a lack of currency.

The 'Marie Antoinette' moment is complete.

Mr Rahul Gandhi who is trying to convince us as to his ability to lead the Nation decides to take a holiday every 3 months or so.Someone please tell him that leading a country like India aint no childs play !!

Donie Trump is filling up his team with family,friends and probably the most nepotism ever is visible in brazen presentation by the new US president.A man of little geographical - political knowledge let us see if his gambit of wooing Russia away from China will or won't work.

Where are the Leaders in India ?Most are simply falling in line and kissing the feet of the most powerful Indian Prime Minister in recent times.It would be pertinent to not forget that the worst of things are done by the most well intentioned.

Auto sales are down 20%.Agricultural production is down 19%.GDP down to 7.1%.The useless Planning Commission replaced by the more pointless Niti Ayog.Much disappointed by the proclamations of Arvind Panagariya.Just being some chair or the other in some US university does not mean that you understand the issues facing India.

I hear spokespersons for BJP denigrate Manmohan Singh,Amartya Sen .I hope our politicians will have some respect for contrarian views in 2017.

I have real respect for our 'didi' Ms Mamata Banerjee who follows her emotions and supports the views so diligently even when it would be so easy for her to shake hands with the party in power,CBI and ponzi cases notwithstanding.The civic amenities have definitely improved in Bengal and her attempts to promote tourism,handicrafts and small scale industry are commendable.

I hope she remains the fearless,indomitable leader in 2017 that she has always been.

2017 will be an interesting time for Indian markets with many points of news to watch.Fed moves on interest rates.Trump's Wall(or lack of it!!).US move on outsourcing,visas,immigration,ISIS.

GDP and inflation in India.Offcourse good solid businesses will remain and am sure the storm over the removal of Cyrus Mistry(why was he appointed in the first place?) by Tatas will remain a storm in a teacup and a good price point to enter the various businesses of the Tatas.

2017 will be for fearless traders,those with a strong heart and a thick skin....!!