Thursday, December 22, 2016

The New Superpower:Will America Falter?

The devil lies in the detail.

I fear to write this post yet I think there is a new World Order in the making.The coming decade will see the decline of America as a superpower and the rise of a triumvirate - China, Russia and allies.

The Factors:-

Decline of NATO
Europe is passe`.NATO as a military power has been in decline over the past decade and its hard to recall any intervention by them over the last decade.They have been more of an assistant to the US army,no firebrand generals,no strategy.

Their expansion into the ex USSR states has been effectively controlled by the Russian bear and the pro Russia feelings of US new President will ensure that Putin can get away with much more than just the annexation of Crimea,fostering an internal war in Ukraine and browbeating the Kazakhs,Uzbeks,Moldovans,Georgians,Chechens by showing them a new Red Army.

Donald Trump's failure in knowing his  Geography lessons
The pronouncements coming out of the transitional US government shows a Trump willing to cede his own backyard - entire South America to Mexico.

By promising to build verbal if not physical walls,Donald Trump's views might have resonated with the American public but it means a significant step back from countries with unsettled economic and political environments - Brasil,Argentina,Peru,Colombia,Chile.
The smaller countries that need support - Nicaragua,Guatemala,Guyana
The ex enemies that seemed to be turning into a friend - Cuba

Who fills the void?
China with its proxy Russia.The Chinese are buying up assets from Africa to America and everything in between.Russia might supply the military hardware and ideology.

Do not discount the locational value of Cuba just 80 miles off the mainland.

What previous US Presidents built as a buffer against communists etc will fall simply because of disinterest on the part of Trump.A lot of raw material and commodities comes from most of these South American countries.

The Affect
Chinese and Russians have so far been hacking into US networks now they have a chance to interfere physically,send in agent provocateurs`,spies that might mix in well with the white supremacist far right fringe of mid USA.

American exports will see decline in the long run,will not be able to have a strong say in the politics as previously.

USA as an island
America becomes an island where they just interact with Europe and those economies that need their products or from whom the US needs raw materials.They become too busy fending of lone wolf terrorists,hackers,rogue agents and start reacting with military hardware creating more friction

The rise and rise of China - Russia-allies
The chinese are simply printing notes and their government controlled companies are buying any available assets,from oil in Mozambique to diamond mines in South Africa to banana plantations in Brasil to sheep and cattle stations in Australia to telecom companies in India.

Russia is economically weaker but has better weapons tech and that is why the Chinese have taken on board their 'natural enemy' Russia.Russia is making overtures to Pakistan because its become  mercenary- supplying weapons to any country that buys without bothering about end use.Pakistan,Sri Lanka-Nepal are being literally bought out by paying huge grants.Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina too will fall to this Chin-Russo combine.

India:Cause and Affect

Russia is joining the Economic Corridor to Balochistan's Gwadar port.It will benefit from a shorter route to the blue water Arabian Sea and the Middle east.India can only watch warily as China rings it in with bases across Myanmar,Sri Lanka,Karachi in Pakistan,all within a few hundred kilometres of the Indian coast.

PM Modi talks big but the sad fact is that the Indian Army is totally underprepared for War.
No artillery guns
Ageing Sukhois
Lack of infantry weapons - the INSAS rifle is too capricious and not enough killing power
Lack of combat boots - snowshoes
Main battle tanks lack firepower and armour
The ranks drained by fighting insurgency in Kashmir,northeast
Lack of talent as of all govt services the army has the most demanding work ethic and too little pay
Political use - from PM to ministers all talk of jawans' bravery yet the Budget goes down yearly!

There is a lot of detail left but I am sure you the reader is begining to get the picture and the reason why the Chinese army is becoming so aggresive and the only thing that can delay a Chinese takeover is if the paper printed by them leads to a collapse of the economy for not being able to manage their debt.

Xi Jinping is a true dictator and with Putin they have formed a master-servant relation,both do not count cost - both in terms of people or hardware as seen in Syria.

Unless Trump really gets the advisors who have a global perspective and listens to them,we will see the rise of a new World Order that will substantially change the economies of the First World to the Third World.

How long?
Five Years.