Thursday, May 15, 2014

Historic Mandate to Govern by the People of India

Today when I stood on the trading floor at 8:30AM there was an electricity around the office.An anticipation.A buzz.A fear.

Coalition or 3rd front or would a single mandate for One party?

And how have the people of India answered the deluge of scams,scandals and sheer brazen impunity which which corruption was carried on.Today is a historic day.A day of hope.But also a day when a huge amount of responsibility has fallen on a single Leader of a singular party.Will he be man enough to claw back the growth?Push back the inflation?sweep corruption from public office?

When at 9AM the results started trickling in and all those who had bought anticipating an NDA majority started booking profits,those too timid to risk it yesterday began to try and make some gains of the moment,the noise rose to a crescendo and with a clear picture emerging and Markets settling into their life highs a gradual simmering of emotions and tense nerves loosening.It feels like the passing of a tornado...!!

Narendra Modi has done what even the great Atal Behari Vajpayee could not.In India's first televised,packaged and MBA grade marketed elections,the BJP has shown the power of 'social media' and the lengths to which planning and preparation with a high level of attention to perceptions of the people on the ground has paid off.Regional areas like Uttar Pradesh as well as the deep South have surprisingly voted the saffron party.

Is is the coming of age of the Indian voter?Will he or she look at governance and the bigger picture rather than look out for freebies or simple jingoistic rants...?Certainly its too early to say but it does look so.Media -both print,television and social has raised awareness about issues,about the need to vote to such levels that the FB generation felt shamed not to be seen with the indelible ink on their finger!

Now let us hope that the majority party that is to form the Government understand what is in store.Simple economics and making sure that the country have enough food,water,jobs and public services.

A good begining,but a long road to go...Amen

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Auslander Raus and Nifty 7K...?

What is the similarity between a slogan used by Neo Nazis in post Hitlerian Germany and the Indian Elections?

In an acrimonious,often hyperbolic confrontation between the leading indian parties,namely BJP and Congress - the issue of foreign birth,caste and social levels has come to play a major role.A lot of the top Congress leadership has stayed away from the battle quoting medical and other problems.It is a problem of incumbency,a lethargy that set in towards the last 2-3 years of the present government.

Dr Manmohan Singh,yes him of the innumerable innuendos and jokes on whatzapp,has not shown himself on behalf of the Congress in this entire campaign.Is that his way of showing his irritation at being used as a proxy?Who knows...as he is too much of a gentleman to express his opinion in public(or private?).

Two decisions of leadership in my mind are responsible for the mess that the Congress as well as the nation finds itself in.

Pranab Mukherjee as Finance Minister
Montek Singh Ahluwalia as Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission and trusted Singh aide de camp

If we go by Sanjay Baru's book the former was fostered on Dr Singh by Mrs Gandhi and the latter by himself.Both looked tired and directionless in their policy making.

The social media savy campaign and the directness of Mr Modi I think will appeal to Indian voters across segments and especially in Metros,Tier-I,II cities where people want better amenities and not just freebies and platitudes...!

As far as predictions go...post 16th May it certainly looks like a strong Government at the centre led by Narendra Modi will take centrestage.

  • Not removing Raghu Rajan as RBI Governor 
  •  The position of 'thought leaders' of the calibre of Prof Bhagwati will show the intentions clearly.

Stockwise there is an air of expectancy around Infrastructure stocks as well as PSUs which need new business ideas ASAP.

Will the Nifty break out further from current levels and cross 7000 is open to conjecture.Inflation and a looming Russo-Ukraine conflict are immediate threats especially if the 60% chance of El Nino comes true in July.I reccomend a 7000 Nifty May Ce and a 6000 Pe to hedge your portfolio.

Remain on the sidelines if not sure,its not worth the risk.Luckily we will get a small preview with exit polls on 13th May....but exit polls historically have been way of the charts most of the time so it will serve well not to put too much faith in them!

Quiet flows the Hooghly till then...

  Expected Seats  
BJP+NDA 286  
Congress+Allies  <100  
Others 50