Tuesday, September 21, 2010

The Heart of India

I was travelling in the rural hinterland of Souther India last week,the fields were a deep shade of green with a new crop of rice,the coconut trees were heavy with fruit,even the roads were drivable,the people did not look sullen and i realised that contra to what I thought the heart of India has made progress albeit a lil slower than expected.

That set me thinking...the farming heartland is still the final frontier to delivering goods and services and companies viz.ITC have started E-Choupals(a concept I shall explain later) etc ,even the Government is looking to make this sizable community of voters get on their favourable side,SO,the firms that manufacture tractors,pipes for irrigation have a ready market...??Mahindra&Mahindra,Jain Irrigation,Welspun Corp...the list of such specialists is long,unfashionable but a worthy investment for the future...

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Chinese Riddle

Many years ago I was in Sikkim at the Indo-China border at Nathula and commented on the dilapidated condition of the roads on what was once the famous Silk Route from the Tajik borders to India,a senior army officer stunned me by saying that the roads had been kept in such condition intentionally in case the Chinese invaded,blowing up one road would prevent them from reaching the Gangetic plains and thence to Calcutta.

Why i mention this story is the constant feeling that the dragon's sabre rattling with Taiwan,the muzzling of Tibet as well as Yahoo-Google story shows a multi dimension to the Chinese approach to business,diplomacy and war.How can any analyst predict what they will do next?

Stories aboud of rivers full of industrial waste....workers without basic wages herded into ghettos etc Look at the crooked lanes of old Shangai but offcourse the "gwai-loh" are not allowed to visit.All said I am a great fan of Chinese perceverence,hardwork and their desire to control the environment in which they live.

But give me the Indian democrasy anyday with its bumbling,confused,multicoloured rainbow of cultures,communities and ideas!My family is from the Punjab,I was born in Calcutta and I am currently sitting in Chennai(Madras).Guess i should stick to the country I (think) I understand.

Monday, September 13, 2010

VC "Super Angels":Filling a funding Gap or killing the next Google

I was reading this interesting article,which I have chiosen as a headline,it made me think why the visisonary leaders of India's top tech firms aint rushing to buy or invest in US cos that could make a difference to telecom,computing,transactional banking in the future.

The Hubris that pervaded the US behemoths in the last decade and led to the charge of Chindia is creating an uncannily similar mindset.The capital costs of investment are low especially in the 'original' silicon valley and if one goes by the patents being issued  and the engineers rushing for US visas it looks like staying thataways for some time.

Are our management "gurus" looking so far ahead that they are in danger of missing the immediate present...!!If some Hedge Fund out in the financial galactic system is listening....look homeward!!

Those whoo bought Supreme Ind can rejoice with a 10% monthly return,the target of 1000 remains.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Value Buy

Cmp Rs.335

FV-10 Book Value Rs.272 TTM (Trailing twelve month) EPS=61 P/E-5.48

TATASPONG-Total production capacity of 390,000 TPA from 3 kilns, self sufficient in power with own captive power plants - producing 26 MW of power from 2 power plants. Power plant, produces electricity from the waste heat of exit gases keeps the environment free of thermal pollution and the company earns carbon credits and company make profit by selling additional power. Company has secure source of raw material with Iron Ore & Dolomite sourced from TATASTEEL mine, quality of iron ore is up to 65% Fe content and Company has been allotted own Coal block making it fully integrated player and operated @ average capacity utilization level of 88%

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Contra Bets

This week I bet on the markets moving up and was glad(a little relieved really) that things went as predicted although "prediction" is at the best of times an unreliable tool to depend on.

Supreme Ind,current market price Rs630($14),a dominant player in the plastic goods industry looks good for investing with a 6 month view and a price target of Rs1000($22)...that works out to a 60% return.

Data points from the US and European markets are swaying between euphoria and despair and in the course of the next couple of months it would be interesting to see which way they go.The respectable Indian analysts who lit up television screens in 2008-09 with their predictions of gloom and doom are begining to resurface and it makes me believe that the rally might just have some more steam left.Cheers to another week coming up...