The new
president of the United States of America seems like a child handed a toy that
they know not what to do with.Cannot resist asking,”Americans how could you
elect a liar like Trump to the highest office in the land?”
If you are a
stock trader/investor or an analyst,you should be really really afraid.
When market
pundits expected markets to fall they rose,when they said they were certain it
would fall,the markets rose higher !!
Mr Trump is
removing ‘Obamacare’,backing out from Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP),planning a
wall with Mexico,trade sanctions or anti dumping tarrifs against those who have
trade surplus with the US and many other measures whose repercussions cannot be
gauged at this moment.
Is his
strategy really deep or is he a simpleton with limited knowledge,an overblown
ego and a perennial foot in the mouth ?
As seen from
the data,post 1980s US import and export curve almost matches each other
signifying goods and services exported to US and revenues used to buy imported
products from the US has been about the same.
Trade
deficit of the USA in 2015 was approximately $ 500 bn.Higher import tariffs will
lead to higher inflation and consequently less dollars in the hands of
exporters most of which are being invested in US $ backed securities? So is
reducing imports such a good move ?
There are
many such issues.Alternative facts and post-truths
The Economist defines post-truth as "a reliance on assertions that "feel true" but
have no basis in fact."
Indian markets on the other hand have continued to
climb,the Government figures on GDP seem misconstrued or even a barely camouflaged
lie and instead of 30% currency not being demonetized as per Government
expectations the fig is only 3%.
After all Trump has made it fashionable to be
trashy and rude and sexist.
The isolationist policies in the US and Britain
will enrage the rest of the world and it will not be easy to steamroll China
into submission.Neither to tame the ISIS.
There is talk of Indian corporate profit growth
10-12% and a GDP of 6.5%.Still talk.Most sectors yet to recover from demonetization,election
in the politically vital state of Uttar Pradesh as also Punjab and Goa will be
a litmus test of Modi magic.
Look forward to the Budget on 1st February
with trepidation as this prime Minister seems to see the stock markets as a
place of speculation and not as a bellweather of the economy.Are higher ‘service
taxes’ coming and maybe a few goodies for the so called “POOR”.
The middle class that pays the taxes will probably
get a few sops as in housing loan limits getting upgraded but higher taxes in
other spheres will make a it sum zero game.
Beggar the Middle class then give it a few handouts
to show that the government is in support.Really nothing has changed from
Indira Gandhi’s “garibi Hatao” to all these “Abhiyans” – swach,swadeshi…
The poor remain poor,the rich get
richer,manufacturing dies a slow death,Chinese buy up companies,traditions
lost,cultures bereft.
It is indeed a strange India with all the inherent
polarities of the past six decades intact.Only the veneer has changed to
saffron.
Henry Vivian DeRozio must be turning in his
forgotten grave in Park Street as must Washington,Jefferson,Franklin and Lincoln.
