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Monday, June 27, 2016

BREXIT...RREXIT and a Few Other Things

Despite all noises to the contrary the British decided to go back to being an island.

Reams of paper has been written on the repercussions,the erudite Mr Trump has also added his two bits hence nothing more to be said.Its complex and going ahead the complexity of the divorce will increase notwithstanding the regret of young Britishers,the Scots,Irish and the rest.


Its pretty clear that the human civilisation is rapidly coalescing into islands based on trade,nationalism,religion,colour.The ghettoisation is happening at country level.

The integrity of politicians is at an all time low.The ends justify the means.There is no other reason for the president of an Indian party to try and sow fear and divide the two major religions just so that his party can win state elections.In the 21st Century the winners are trying to re-write history.

The British empire was brutal and pillaged our national treasures yet they gave us public administration and the concept of democracy.But why do I feel that we are reverting back to our tribes?The Marathas will not hear any negative noise on Shivaji,the Rajputs on Maharana Pratap etc

Creating a cult round the leader is a singular Indian trait.Starting from Jawaharlal Nehru...Indira....Rajiv....MGR....Jayalalitha...Mamata Banerjee,they are raised on such a pedestal from where it is easier to see them as demigods and less as humans with human foibles and quirks.One N arendra Modi is the latest in a long line.He am sure has a vision for the country beyond his own personal agenda BUT that agenda is very individualistic and party oriented indeed.

Public relations and grandstanding have become an art.Yet the investor should not lose hope!

In 1990 the BSE index was 1,000+.Today it is 26,000+.Quantum of return?

Yet we have had floods,droughts,the Babri Masjid,Rajiv Gandhi's assasination,Harshad Mehta - Ketan Parekh scams,meltdown of the 'Tiger'economies of southeast Asia,the 2008 subprime crisis,the peak in oil prices and finally Brexit.

Picking companies and businesses to invest in is the key.If people buy cars then Maruti,Tatamotors,Mahindra will profit,if they buy bikes or scooters then Bajaj or Hero or Honda.

Sometimes its easy to lose oneself in the complexity of life,be it in the living or investing.Exercise,meditate or do Yoga.take a step back.Events will keep happening and some might seem like the end of the world.Its important to pick up the pieces and keep walking ahead,one step at a time.

“The tragedy of life is not death but what dies inside us while we live.”
—Norman Cousins

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

POTUS of the World...!!

If 'Don' becomes POTUS then we may just see the 'dawn' of a new era in relations between the USA and rest of the world!

I saw 'may' as I seriously doubt that he truly is dumb enough to follow through on his rhetoric of building a wall with Mexico,taxing chinese imports,disarming a nucleur Pakistan by force or cutting down on aid to partner countries that have for decades depended on the USA.

Some of his straight talk does make a kind of convoluted sense but realpolitik is not run by common sense or the CIA would not have backed the Marcos regime in Phillipines,got into the Iran -Contra tangle or the mess in Central and southern Afrca – Mozambique,Congo etc

For a businessman who has been bankrupt a few times and with the showbiz personality its strange that Americans are shedding their quasi sophisticated tag to back this tux wearing redneck.

For the rest of us watching beyond the Atlantic shores it does seem like comedy most times as the pronouncments of 'Don' on everything from gender issues to racial segregation seems like we are back in the 1800s living in the era of slave traders,witch hunting and all that connotes.

In China,Xi Jinping is taking a leaf out of Chairman Mao's style of governance,purging powerful military leaders,opposition in the guise of an anti-corruption drive.The 'iron curtain' remains in place with twitter,Faebook blocked at every anti-establishment word written.

For the past two years my blogs have said the same thing.Do not believe completely in the official China data.

Now I guess I must say the same about India.A growth of 7.6% simply does not reflect on the ground.No major reform has happened even after Two years of the Modi government despite noises to the contrary.

If they truly believed that their work spoke they would not need full page advertisements in the dailies and huge wastage of public money on celebrations.

Celebrations?

Prudence is good.Extra prudence is useless.The benefits of fall in crude prices never percolated down to the public,they have added additional 'cess' to clean India,for farmers but truly speaking how much of the public money will reach the destination is a big question in the meantime the Indian middle class which is bound to pay tax as its deducted at source keeps getting poorer.

Hinduism which for centuries was a unifying force is now the new weapon to garner votes.At least we Hindus could say that Islam conquered by force and did not give people choice but seeing these pseudo yogis on TV talking of beheading when one of them not too long ago tried to flee from the police disguised as a woman really doesnt say much for discipline.

India is growing through sheer dynamics,people,resources and some systems.That will keep on.But these Indian politicians have tasted Public Relations and an American high decibel style that does not bode well for the future as only billionaire politicians will have the financial means to get their voice heard.

Even the puniest politician will adopt machiavellian means to generate the funds.


But let us not lose hope,great things are expected from Team Modi and he still has three years left!