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Sunday, June 10, 2012

The New Imperialists...

Sometimes it seems that imperialism never ended, just that new players disguised it in a different more disingenous form.An article in the newspapers recently caught my eye stating the wide disparity in social wealth in China and how the rich can never sleep in peace if the have-nots do not have enough to survive properly!

I have been saying the same thing in my blog as well as interaction with the entrepreneurs and other sundry business who have been to China and been dazzled by the broad highways and steel and concrete highrises.Many eons ago I saw the glitzy side of Shanghai and also the old city with its warren of filthy streets,subsistence quality of life and crime.Yet,most travellers who are shown the newer infrastructure believe that is the true China.The one party rule ensures right publicity but that is getting more difficult by the day.
Even if the US Pacific Command puts in more warships in the Indian Ocean it will not help China as the US administration has a record of never doing the right thing at the right time and the Chinese might browbeat them into not interceding in case of a conflict.With its nuke subs operating in the Bay of Bengal and bases at Hambantota,Sri Lanka and a new one in Myanmar they already have an axis ready.They beat their wardrums to keep everyone out of the Spratly isles and the South China Sea.

The sad massacres in Syria and Yemen is a reminder that there may not have been any world wars in six decades yet the violence is only increasing and the World remains a volatile,bloody battlefield.

More QE might exacerbate the Lehmannish problems yet its better to do something rather than nothing...!!The mollycodldling of its population by these welfare states has left them near-bankrupt,its driven them to ban emigrants and putting up walls will leave them isolated from the fresh energy and ideas they might otherwise have used.

For investors in India I would ike to quote Rothschild,"The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets".Businesses in europe are quoting at record lows,so is real estate.My only fear is that if assets in the US or Europe get any cheaper then funds will flow out of the country and we do need FDI to pull up the infrastructure here.

Weekly time interval chart formed strongest Bull candle which engulfed price action of past three weeks. This is a potential trend reversal signal from technical perspective as lows of the week at 4770 levels remains a major support from medium term perspective.
 Going ahead challenge for Nifty remains at 5135-5160 range which is seen as major hurdle being: lower range of the March-April consolidation (5160) and 200 day exponential moving average that is present at 5135. Pullback in prices from this resistance is expected to garner buying support in the 4960-5020 range
 In the month of June (till June 7, 2012) , FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 594 crore while DIIs were the net buyers to the tune of 1903 crore
 Key data to watch globally would be US Advanced retail sales, Consumer price inflation and Initial jobless claims and Euro Zone CPI. In India, data to watch would be IIP numbers and monthly wholesale price index

Let the short sellers and options writers enjoy till then.