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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Pers(ian) Problems...

So the Iranians finally decided to unsheath their 'velvet'gloves at last!

Although Iran has never been counted in the same group of 'Mad Mullahs' comprising Afghanistan etc it seems that the desire for sabre rattling and the creation of the state of Israel cannot be digested.

Its truly a dickensian world where Obama led Americans will give $ 2.4billion to Pakistan for killing the Coalition soldiers,arming the Taliban and Kashmir insurgents and sharing nuclear tech (thru A Q Khan) with Iran.Some ghosts never go away.All field reports have categorically warned of the ISI-Taliban-Al Qaeda nexus yet the mandarins in Washington play their own games.

By covertly supporting the nuclearization of Korea,Pakistan and indirectly Iran,I think China this time has been a little too smart in the long term planning they so like.If the Islamists gain sway in south Asia,the small Chinese problem in Uighur can in a decade become a serious threat.

The western world did not understand that the covert support in Afghanistan and Kashmir would come back to haunt The US within a decade and its destroyed the economic fabric of at least one country.Historically,Islam has been a tribal religion and when they did not find a common enemy then the Shias fought the Sunnis,the Ahmadiyas etc

Threats in the Straits of Hormuz,cutting of oil supply when Europe is on the verge of a recession and an election bound President in the US do not make good reading for the economic world and high commodity prices.

The Israelis i feel have a window within the next six months if they can reach the facilities at Bushehr as its unlikely that President Obama will take the risk.Unlike the past their fighter jets have air-to-air refuelling capacity now and they do not need a friendly power to transit through.

What effect will it have on equity markets?A correction would be healthy and let off the excess exuberance that has built up in india in the new year.A nifty level of 47000-5000 would be a good place to start buying beaten down real estate,infrastructure and power cos with good balance sheets and not too much leverage on their books.

Can look at India hotels(around 70),Lupin(around 470),Indiabulls real Estate(around 77-79).Rcom to be bought on dips around 77-88 mark.I would write a few nifty calls around 5500 level because I havent been short on indian equites since 2010.