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Saturday, February 25, 2012

Climbing The Wall



Crude is on the boil...Republicans say dig more Oil Wells....Saudis want nukes.....Afghans kill,not because they do not have any food,but due to some Qurans being burnt at an army base!!

The new world is a complex,modern,tech marvel with the social tolerance level of the Dark Ages or the Crusades.Yet Wall Street is almost at a Four year high.What does the American public see that we in the "developing" world do not?

I travelled to one of India's most mineral rich states-Odisha.For many years to call someone an "oriya" was derogatory and meant someone with low level skills.I have a lot of Oriya friends and was amazed to see how well the infrastructure is developing with good roads,modern highways and good management of the iron ore resources so far.Yes Niyamgiri is an exception but on the whole they seem to have taken the 'green earth' policy quite seriously.Being an Oriya will I guess be a matter of pride from now on for all the residents of this marvellous state.

When compared to Bengal,the future definitely seems to be shifting towards the south eastern state and all my investor friends should certainly look at investing in and around Bhubaneswar,the capital of Odisha.The Flip Flop politics of Bengal is not helping.

Whatever is happening to the Dow,Nasdaq-Indian markets are likely to consolidate but my gut feeling is that the beaten down infrastructure space is a good BUY as are the midcaps in business leadership positions in their respective sectors.I am on the long side in ITC,Pantaloons for the next ten days.

The Rupee looks set to trade around 49-50 vis a vis the $ and Gold may outperform silver although in the long run i am more bullish.

A couple of months back I had given a strategy of selling Gold and Buying crude and those who did that are still making a decent return of 25% .Its always nice to talk of things that went right as i have spent One whole year being bullish on India when the nifty gave a return of -24%.Feels good to be vindicated although the rally has been mainly on account of liquidity.Yet the portends for a Bullrun are there and nifty levels of 4900-5000 would be a good place to start accumulating.