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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The Day of Pundits...

I have not looked at the ticker tapes for a longish while,just seen afew interviews of Mr Nouriel Roubini etc and the mess in mess in Europe the debt imbroglio in the USA.Strange that in the 21st century most economists and their ilk are still feeling their way round data points and giving various interpretations.

In India,RBI says that the data used for declaring GDP,inflation by the Government is not reliable!In an era of information overload its still hard to quantify quality from the rest.Will a big Bank in Europe go the Lehmann bros way?Will Spain,Portugal follow Greece?

I feel the commodity prices are crucial and the RBI is wasting time hiking rates,the critical player is the Government that should look at the supply side issues and unfortunately the requisite infrastructure to support a growing economy has just not delivered.

Rather than fancy penthouses we need a strong Road development policy at the earliest.Just look at the conditions in even so called B Towns like Nagpur,Bhopal,Lucknow and you will understand.Yet the 'experts"predict a bleak outlook for Infra stocks!!

I would not be carried away by the interest rate hype,Indian banks are well capitalized and well managed,the top Real estate firms will ride out the slow down,don't think a growth differential of 7% or 8% will matter,what will matter that we keep growing consistently for another decade to really scale up and real the tribal areas where development will truly thrust this country into another orbit.