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Saturday, January 29, 2011

Good Chaos,if you are an investor!

Chaos is good for investors.

It allows you to pick good quality stocks for reasonable value and if held for a reasonable period of time will give you a (reasonable) return!

Countless investors(I think they are traders) have approached me in January 2011 asking if the Indian markets are done for.They want to know what will happen in the next couple of days or at most a week.Frankly.I do not know.Seeing it through their eyes the sudden fall in the Nifty&BSE has been brutal,unnerving and even an oversold market is not even giving a 'dead cat' bounce.

On a broader spectrum,from the high of Nov 5 the market has retraced around 12% and it could be 30-40% before it stabilizes.I see no reason not to remain invested in cash and do the ocassional averaging in the Nifty 50 stocks that appear relatively valued at the moment.

The scams,food&energy prices do look  a little scary.....but when during my travels across the country I see the markets,stores full of people,the good credit demand...my faith in the "India Consumption" story remains intact.

That is what I wish to share with you.Back your conviction and at every 5% correction use 25% of your available cash to buy quality stocks and HOLD.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

State of Flux

The indian markets have again shown how unpredictable and capricious the economy can be.High commodity prices,oil and high interest rates.Most investors start asking,"is it the end of the road?"

I re-iterate,BELIEVE in the India story.We all knew there was corruption its just that the "breaking news" brigade has brought to the fore more scams that would have remained hidden from public view a decade back.

WE need a free media,conscientious objectors,whistle blowers to make this country the free spirit that made the USA such a power state.We need the raw energy that our entrepreneurs have and the stinginess to save costs and be efficient.

Enterprising use of natural resources will be the key to the future and all the social enterprises,green companies are just the begining.If the whole world had 100% literacy then who would want to do menial work?

A more educated,aware world will demand the right practises,whatever that "right" might mean!In the 1960-70s in India,brass was a 'controlled" item and the Government would give "quotas".My forefathers stopped making pipe fittings as it was more profitable to sell the brass in the "black"market.

I fear that natural resources will get rationed and this time it will mean war not between competing firms but between nation states.
China rumbling on India's North eastern borders and we try to appease them and maybe a repeat of the 1962 Sino-Indian war?

If India is to have its place in the sun our foreign policy has to be a lot more aggressive.What is a blue water navy for?We have to take the fight to the terrorists be there economic or physical.We need to fight for resources.Nice guys finish last,and India has been the nice guy so far.