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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Recap-excellent returns and some bullseyes!

Of all the things said by me:-

Sujana Tower gave an 65% return
SKS Micro touched the rate on the downside as I had mentioned and questioned the ratiionale of investing in this sector
Am sure my views will be borne out on GM IPO
Artillery shelling on the Korean border was a black swan event,maybe some North Korean general asking for food for his soldiers?
The Irish bent a knee to ask for a bailout
Despite all I still dont sense any panic in the markets nor a heavy dose of pessimism that's required for markets to go up from current levels.
I watched "The Social Network",I think Food Security & drinking water will be big issues in the coming future and a bottle of evian might just be more priceless than you think
India need to innovate and science needs to move out of college labs...

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Currencies,forex,cars and food

Just rambling thoughts in a world that ocillates between hope and despair.Is the dollar getting weak or strong?Will Ireland go the Greek way?Will emerging markets move up further...

The only hope is not to hope for hope.Buy 10 year bonds at 8% and hope that the inflation stays moves below 5% and you might be in bond heaven.Or buy quality stories that can grow.

I do not predict how technologies will change over the next decade but I do know that as per our biology our need for food and drink will not change,a walmart,dunkin donuts or Burger King will be required to satiate the urge for "comfort food".

Hindlever,ITC in foods
Bhel,Larsen&Toubro in capital goods
Powergrid,Power Finance Corporation for a power hungry India
Apollo Tyres as all those millions of marutis,hondas,nissans,GMs cant run on air!yet!

Multi bagger smallcaps I shall discuss later as I am confused on the plethora of options available.If a 10% correction happens then is the time to do your value investing.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

US Automobile segment

If I were a US investor with a medium sized risk appetite I would be buying Ford@$15 and subscribing to the expected issue of GM.

My primary reason is that demand will turn and rather than wait before every tom and harry starts seeing the pattern one can take a calculated risk.

Secondary reason is that the US auto cos education is complete.Its a lesson they learnt in the mid 1980s from the Hondas,Nissans,Suzukis.The behemoth SUVs have been replaced(not completely) with smaller more fuel efficient variants that are begining to compete successfuly in the crowded Asian markets.

I want to own an American car and I feel so do a few other non-believers like me!!With the existing marketing muscle and leaner,cost saving cars there are a few million ready consumers waiting...

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Discovery of India...?

A Nation where a pizza is guaranteened to reach in 30 minutes but not an ambulance or police
    Where you can get a car loan at 5% but an educational loan at 12%
       where rice costs Rs40 a kg but a mobile phone SIM card is absolutely free
          where people worship Goddess Durga as feminine deity but kill their girl childs
             where the government awards 3 crores to an Olympics shooter
                but pays just 1 lac to a soldier killed defending his country
                 
But I am sure that these anomalies will belong to a past that our country will shed as its done in so many things and we can truly be proud of our Nation!!

Monday, November 1, 2010

Portfolio Buy - Hindusthan National Glass(expected returns 100%)

Reccomend buy (INE725E01016)Hindusthan National Glass@250-270  in longter portfolio if so wished with a near term(1 year) target of Rs 550.