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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Ne Hao

I seem to be turning into a full time China watcher but I feel honour bound to share the insights of an analyst friend of mine who says that in the previous 6 months wages have risen by almost 25-30% in China.And food inflation is running almost 250 basis points higher than the official figure.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle-Sun Tzu

The Chinese Mandarins know the enemy but not themselves is my closest guess.Media bans or Mr Buffet's confidence in the country will not lessen the angst of those carted out in cattle trucks before the Beijing Olympics or those farmers who lost crops in the Sept floods or even the Uigher resistance.Tibet style cleansing will probably not work any more.The world will be more culturally sensitive and the Green brigade is growing stronger by the day,I tended to agree with Michael Crichton's ideas in "State of Fear" but the chinese disregard for the environment is callous to the point of insanity.

By 2015 I see a huge social and cultural change in China,question is will it be painful?violent?revolutionary?intense or orderly?How will the investors be able to get a RoE or how much?How will it affect India,Europe or the USA?Srebenica frightens me...and i have no answers.